tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Orlando via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 PHL → 20:54 MCO
    AA 2531 · American · 2h 49m · 59% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 22mORD 13:32 to MCO 20:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.