tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Knoxville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:48 PHL → 20:00 TYS
    AA 5066 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 12m · 65% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 28mORD 13:32 to TYS 20:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.