tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Providence via Philadelphia: arrives on time 24%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 18:59 PVD
    AA 5183 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 24m · 50% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 27mORD 13:32 to PVD 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.