tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PHL → 18:55 BNA
    AA 5580 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 70% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 23mORD 13:32 to BNA 18:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.