tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Pittsburgh via Philadelphia: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:12 PIT
    AA 6092 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 32m · 69% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 40mORD 13:32 to PIT 19:12, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.