tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rochester via Philadelphia: arrives on time 36%

  1. 13:32 ORD → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1859 · American · 2h 17m · 68% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:40 PHL → 19:14 ROC
    AA 6108 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 34m · 64% on time, 6.2% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rochester is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (6.2% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip4h 42mORD 13:32 to ROC 19:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.