tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 80%

  1. 06:00 SMF → 07:54 PHX
    AA 1867 · American · 1h 54m · 93% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:17 PHX → 17:29 JFK
    AA 2689 · American · 5h 13m · 86% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip8h 30mSMF 06:00 to JFK 17:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.