tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Kailua/Kona via Phoenix: arrives on time 83%

  1. 06:00 SMF → 07:54 PHX
    AA 1867 · American · 1h 54m · 93% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 2h 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:40 PHX → 14:06 KOA
    AA 663 · American · 6h 26m · 85% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 11h 06m, scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 121 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 46m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip11h 06mSMF 06:00 to KOA 14:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.