tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Miami → Louisville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 52%

  1. 16:45 MIA → 19:41 PHL
    AA 1871 · American · 2h 56m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:38 PHL → 23:03 SDF
    AA 4466 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 25m · 86% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 18mMIA 16:45 to SDF 23:03, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.