tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 39%

  1. 17:34 FSD → 19:58 DFW
    AA 1878 · American · 2h 24m · 48% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:29 DFW → 22:06 PHX
    AA 3239 · American · 2h 38m · 61% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip6h 33mFSD 17:34 to PHX 22:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.