tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Harrisburg via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 17:35 DFW → 20:29 ORD
    AA 1893 · American · 2h 55m · 41% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:18 ORD → 00:22 MDT +1 day
    AA 4640 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 04m · 80% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Harrisburg is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 47mDFW 17:35 to MDT 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.