tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Richmond via Chicago: arrives on time 16%

  1. 17:35 DFW → 20:29 ORD
    AA 1893 · American · 2h 55m · 41% on time, 6.9% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 ORD → 00:39 RIC +1 day
    AA 4698 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 17m · 50% on time, 6.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection37%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 63% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (6.9% are) × connection made (37%) × second flight not cancelled (6.7% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip6h 04mDFW 17:35 to RIC 00:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.