tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Santa Barbara via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 50%

  1. 07:00 ORD → 09:35 DFW
    AA 1902 · American · 2h 35m · 77% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:30 DFW → 11:47 SBA
    AA 2510 · American · 3h 17m · 75% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip6h 47mORD 07:00 to SBA 11:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.