tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dulles → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 19%

  1. 19:31 IAD → 21:50 DFW
    AA 1904 · American · 3h 19m · 51% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:59 DFW → 23:28 PHX
    AA 2319 · American · 2h 31m · 37% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Times are local. Both flew on 45 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time19%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip6h 59mIAD 19:31 to PHX 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.