tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 11:26 IAH → 14:17 ORD
    AA 1909 · American · 2h 51m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:03 ORD → 18:20 LGA
    AA 3050 · American · 2h 20m · 65% on time, 13.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (13.6% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 57mIAH 11:26 to LGA 18:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.