tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 11:26 IAH → 14:17 ORD
    AA 1909 · American · 2h 51m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:07 ORD → 16:40 STL
    AA 4537 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 33m · 80% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip5h 14mIAH 11:26 to STL 16:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.