tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 13:36 IAH → 16:35 ORD
    AA 1915 · American · 2h 59m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:56 ORD → 20:59 DCA
    AA 1787 · American · 2h 04m · 55% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 36 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 21m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 24mIAH 13:36 to DCA 20:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.