tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 13:36 IAH → 16:35 ORD
    AA 1915 · American · 2h 59m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 24mIAH 13:36 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.