tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Miami via Philadelphia: arrives on time 38%

  1. 16:27 IAH → 20:55 PHL
    AA 1925 · American · 3h 28m · 70% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 PHL → 00:52 MIA +1 day
    AA 2936 · American · 2h 57m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip7h 25mIAH 16:27 to MIA 00:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.