tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Grand Rapids via Philadelphia: arrives on time 42%

  1. 16:27 IAH → 20:55 PHL
    AA 1925 · American · 3h 28m · 70% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHL → 23:58 GRR
    AA 5493 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 08m · 73% on time, 12.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (12.8% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 31mIAH 16:27 to GRR 23:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.