tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 60%

  1. 06:55 STL → 08:23 ORD
    AA 1926 · American · 1h 28m · 74% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:30 ORD → 13:21 TPA
    AA 2920 · American · 2h 51m · 79% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection80%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 20% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time60%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (80%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip5h 26mSTL 06:55 to TPA 13:21, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.