tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → San Francisco via Philadelphia: arrives on time 15%

  1. 12:21 IAH → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1927 · American · 3h 28m · 55% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 PHL → 20:47 SFO
    AA 2663 · American · 6h 12m · 60% on time, 1.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection25%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 75% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (25%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip10h 26mIAH 12:21 to SFO 20:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.