tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Norfolk via Philadelphia: arrives on time 35%

  1. 12:21 IAH → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1927 · American · 3h 28m · 55% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 PHL → 19:10 ORF
    AA 5335 · American, flown by PSA · 1h 20m · 66% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 49mIAH 12:21 to ORF 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.