tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Nashville via Philadelphia: arrives on time 16%

  1. 12:21 IAH → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1927 · American · 3h 28m · 55% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 PHL → 18:55 BNA
    AA 5580 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 19m · 70% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection26%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 74% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (26%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 34mIAH 12:21 to BNA 18:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.