tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Hartford via Philadelphia: arrives on time 30%

  1. 12:21 IAH → 16:49 PHL
    AA 1927 · American · 3h 28m · 55% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:45 PHL → 19:06 BDL
    AA 5857 · American, flown by Piedmont · 1h 21m · 67% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 44 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip5h 45mIAH 12:21 to BDL 19:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.