tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Birmingham via Miami: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:12 IAH → 21:50 MIA
    AA 1931 · American · 2h 38m · 42% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:56 MIA → 23:59 BHM
    AA 3427 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 03m · 85% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (85%).
Total trip5h 47mIAH 18:12 to BHM 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.