tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Washington via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 34%

  1. 12:03 MEM → 13:45 DFW
    AA 1935 · American · 1h 42m · 54% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 11m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:56 DFW → 18:59 DCA
    AA 3101 · American · 3h 03m · 54% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 26 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 11m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip5h 56mMEM 12:03 to DCA 18:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.