tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Newark → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 17:21 EWR → 19:23 ORD
    AA 1936 · American · 3h 02m · 70% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:22 ORD → 23:42 RDU
    AA 4615 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 20m · 80% on time, 9.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (9.1% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 21mEWR 17:21 to RDU 23:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.