Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 27%

  1. 20:42 IND → 21:10 ORD
    AA 1951 · American · 1h 37m · 43% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 31mIND 20:42 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.