tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 20:42 IND → 21:10 ORD
    AA 1951 · American · 1h 37m · 43% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 26m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 41 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 26m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 40mIND 20:42 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.