tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Houston via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 35%

  1. 14:42 JFK → 17:44 DFW
    AA 1953 · American · 4h 02m · 69% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:34 DFW → 19:51 HOU
    AA 3351 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 17m · 67% on time, 9.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (9.5% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 09mJFK 14:42 to HOU 19:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.