tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Charlotte via Hebron: arrives on time 50%

  1. 09:56 PHX → 16:37 CVG
    AA 1954 · American · 3h 41m · 77% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Hebron (CVG) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:29 CVG → 19:07 CLT
    AA 2911 · American · 1h 38m · 69% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip6h 11mPHX 09:56 to CLT 19:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.