tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Baltimore via Miami: arrives on time 36%

  1. 12:52 PHX → 20:28 MIA
    AA 1983 · American · 4h 36m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:17 MIA → 23:54 BWI
    AA 3216 · American · 2h 37m · 57% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip8h 02mPHX 12:52 to BWI 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.