tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via Miami: arrives on time 40%

  1. 12:52 PHX → 20:28 MIA
    AA 1983 · American · 4h 36m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:22 MIA → 00:09 MSP +1 day
    AA 458 · American · 3h 47m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 17m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip9h 17mPHX 12:52 to MSP 00:09, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.