tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Las Vegas via Phoenix: arrives on time 41%

  1. 17:30 PHL → 19:37 PHX
    AA 1984 · American · 5h 07m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:36 PHX → 21:43 LAS
    AA 2106 · American · 1h 07m · 68% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip7h 13mPHL 17:30 to LAS 21:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.