tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Phoenix via Philadelphia: arrives on time 50%

  1. 17:50 JAX → 20:08 PHL
    AA 1990 · American · 2h 18m · 50% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 42m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:50 PHL → 23:59 PHX
    AA 2721 · American · 5h 09m · 72% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 9h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 57 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 42m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip9h 09mJAX 17:50 to PHX 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.