tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Chicago via Philadelphia: arrives on time 32%

  1. 17:50 JAX → 20:08 PHL
    AA 1990 · American · 2h 18m · 50% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 24m layover in Philadelphia (PHL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:32 PHL → 23:30 ORD
    AA 3042 · American · 2h 58m · 63% on time, 13.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 39 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 24m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (13.9% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 40mJAX 17:50 to ORD 23:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.