tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Phoenix: arrives on time 57%

  1. 13:10 LAX → 14:40 PHX
    AA 1994 · American · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:49 PHX → 20:30 XNA
    AA 4086 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 41m · 82% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip5h 20mLAX 13:10 to XNA 20:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.