tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:11 JAX → 19:45 CLT
    AA 1999 · American · 1h 34m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:35 CLT → 21:53 PHX
    AA 2923 · American · 4h 18m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 29 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip6h 42mJAX 18:11 to PHX 21:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.