tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Jacksonville → Phoenix via Charlotte: arrives on time 28%

  1. 18:11 JAX → 19:45 CLT
    AA 1999 · American · 1h 34m · 55% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:34 CLT → 22:00 PHX
    AA 936 · American · 4h 26m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Jacksonville). Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 49mJAX 18:11 to PHX 22:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.