tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Phoenix via Las Vegas: arrives on time 83%

  1. 06:50 ORD → 08:51 LAS
    AA 2020 · American · 3h 56m · 87% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:56 LAS → 11:08 PHX
    AA 2004 · American · 1h 12m · 92% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip6h 18mORD 06:50 to PHX 11:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.