tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dallas-Fort Worth → Richmond via New York: arrives on time 21%

  1. 15:56 DFW → 20:29 LGA
    AA 2028 · American · 3h 34m · 40% on time, 12.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:29 LGA → 22:58 RIC
    AA 4345 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 67% on time, 9.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (12.9% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (9.7% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip6h 02mDFW 15:56 to RIC 22:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.