tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Charlotte: arrives on time 45%

  1. 14:31 LGA → 16:53 CLT
    AA 2033 · American · 2h 22m · 64% on time, 7.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Charlotte (CLT) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 CLT → 20:06 SNA
    AA 358 · American · 5h 06m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (7.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip8h 35mLGA 14:31 to SNA 20:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.