tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Wilmington via New York: arrives on time 46%

  1. 13:07 CLT → 15:05 LGA
    AA 2036 · American · 1h 58m · 82% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:56 LGA → 18:02 ILM
    AA 4429 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 07m · 70% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip4h 56mCLT 13:07 to ILM 18:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.