tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Rosa via Las Vegas: arrives on time 75%

  1. 10:24 PHX → 11:37 LAS
    AA 2037 · American · 1h 13m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 47m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 15:24 LAS → 17:16 STS
    AS 2458 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 1h 52m · 80% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 137 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 47m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 52mPHX 10:24 to STS 17:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.