tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 23:49 LAS → 05:37 ORD
    AA 2040 · American · 3h 52m · 67% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 06:36 ORD → 09:46 PHL +1 day
    AA 2115 · American · 2h 11m · 76% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 58mLAS 23:49 to PHL 09:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.