tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 45%

  1. 08:00 DCA → 10:10 LAS
    AA 2051 · American · 5h 10m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:30 LAS → 15:10 OAK
    WN 4488 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 110 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip10h 10mDCA 08:00 to OAK 15:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.