tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → St Louis via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 15:05 MCO → 17:20 ORD
    AA 2066 · American · 3h 18m · 51% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:17 ORD → 19:44 STL
    AA 4144 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 27m · 60% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Orlando). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip5h 39mMCO 15:05 to STL 19:44, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.