tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Orlando → Raleigh/Durham via Miami: arrives on time 15%

  1. 18:34 MCO → 19:50 MIA
    AA 2072 · American · 1h 16m · 29% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:49 MIA → 23:07 RDU
    AA 3474 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 18m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection29%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 71% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (29%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip4h 33mMCO 18:34 to RDU 23:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.