tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Charlotte → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:35 CLT → 15:56 ORD
    AA 2080 · American · 2h 21m · 74% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 ORD → 19:58 ROC
    AA 6438 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 58m · 59% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 23mCLT 14:35 to ROC 19:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.